| Myles Allen, Oxford | Phil Jones, CRU | Toru Nozawa, NIES, Japan (paying own way) |
| Gabi Hegerl, Univ. Edinburgh | David Karoly, Univ Melbourne (only needs airfare from New Orleans and locals) | Nathan Gillett, UEA, CRU |
| Jonas Bhend | Jesse Kenyon, Duke | Richard Smith, UNC (Unable to attend) |
| Tim Barnett (unable to attend) | Hideo Shiogama, NIES (unable to attend) | Daithi Stone, Oxford |
| Francis Zwiers, Environment Canada | Reto Knutti, SwissFIT (needs air but not hotel) | Peter Stott, Metoffice |
| Hans von Storch, GKSS (paying own way) | Jonty Rougier, Univ. Bristol | Reiner Schnur (unable to attend) |
| Karl Taylor, LLNL | Ben Santer, LLNL | Mike Wehner, Lawr. Berk. NL |
| Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR | Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada (paying own way) | Doug Nychka,NCAR |
| Anjuli Bamzai, DOE | Chris Miller, NOAA | Randall Dole, NOAA | |
| Marty Hoerling, NOAA | Tom Knutson, NOAA | Jerry Meehl, Local UCAR | |
| Caspar Amman, Local UCAR | Dave Eaterling, NOAA | Erich Fisher, Switzerland |
Agenda: The questions are just suggestions of questions in my mind about a topic, that if
you have a view about, please address them in your talk! - Gabi
1. Regional climate change. Questions
8:50 Gabi and Jesse: Welcome, agenda, practicals
9:10 Anjuli: Perspective from DOE
9:20 Chris Miller: Perspective from NOAA
9:30 "Detection of an emerging regional scale signal in future climate change
simulations and in the future climate variations." - David Karoly
9:50 "Examples of End-to-End and Multi-Scale Attribution" - Nikos Christidis
10:10 Attribution of regional extreme temperatures, observational uncertainty, and
Atlantic salinity changes - Peter Stott
10:40 Discussion of talks so far
11:00 coffee
11:20 "Attribution of polar temperature changes" - Nathan Gillett
11:40 "D&A results for Western U.S." - Ben Santer , Tim Barnett
12:00 "Detection and Attribution Activities at PCMDI." - Ben Santer
12:20 Discussion: all talks combined.
1:00-2:00 Lunch
2:00 70's transition Jerry Meehl
2:20 "Attribution of high latitude precipitation changes" - Francis Zwiers
2:40 "Regional Climate Change from an Impacts Perspective" – Linda Mearns
3:00 Drought – Mike Wehner
3:20 Discussion
3:40 Coffee
4:00 "Detectability of regional scale precipitation and temperature changes in a surrogate climate" -Jonas Bhend
4:20 "Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in
temperature extremes over the U.S." - Claudia Tebaldi
4:40 "Regional Detection and Attribution: Some updates" – Xuebin Zhang
5:00 The European Heat Wave: Erich Fischer
5:20 "Storminess in the Extratropics review plus new results for N Europe and NE
Canada." Hans von Storch
5:40 Discussion; Wrapup regional attribution topic
6:00 Adjourn
7:30 Group Dinner at Laudisio
9:00 "Toward an operational weather risk attribution system" - Daithi Stone
9:20 "Mechanisms for the Recent Surge in US warming" - Martin Hoerling
9:50 "How should NOAA's new Climate Attribution Team handle near real-time
attribution of climate anomalies to anthropogenic forcing?" - Tom Knutson
10:30 Coffee break
10:50 ‘Experiment design and model output collection for the AR5 runs’ Karl Taylor
11:10 "Early 21st Century Short term Predictions" - Tim Stockdale and Gabi Hegerl
11:20 Discussion
Large-scale changes and climate system properties:
11:50 Probabilistic predictions: Myles Allen
12:10 Challenges in Quantifying Climate Model Bias, Dependence, and Performance: Reto Knutti (NEEDS TO BE BEFORE 3)
12:30 Additivity of signals: Toru Nozawa
12:50 Discussion
1:00-2:00 Lunch
Group housekeeping
2:00 Discussion of workplan progress and plans; next meeting 3:00 Discussion of review paper #1: Myles Allen to lead
3:30 Coffee
3:50 Use of multi model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty due to model structural
error - Jonty Rougier
4:10 Discussion: Doug Nychka
4:30 Lenny Smith
4:50 Group Discussion
5:30 adjourn
10:20 Coffee break
10:50 "Towards understanding regional changes in past millennium" - Gabi Hegerl
11:05 Discussion of last block; next step on Paleo.
12:00 wrapup
Millennium Harvest House Boulder
1345 Twenty-Eighth Street
Boulder, CO
USA 80302-6899
T: 1 (303) 443-3850
F: 1 (303) 443-1480
The hotel is approximately 1.5 miles from downtown Boulder which is scenic, and it very close to a nice
shopping center.
As part of the IDAG meeting, we are providing lunch to all
participants, as well as a morning and afternoon coffee break.
Lunch will be provided the first two days of the meeting in the NCAR cafeteria.
PLEASE be sure to wear your name tag as this will be how NCAR keeps track of your lunch charge
and bills IDAG directly.
NOTE: The cafeteria closes at 1:30, so we will have to end our sessions promptly in order to
get to lunch
Additionally there is an in-house restaurant at the hotel serving all
three meals of breakfast, lunch and Dinner.
A full AND FREE breakfast is provided at Millennium Hotel, PLEASE be sure to get your coupons upon
check in.
On Monday evening, we will all attend a group dinner at Laudisio.
All attendees are welcome, and IDAG members are paid for, as
well as guests. Federal employees have different arrangements but they will be aware of that.
IDAG members and others being supported by UCAR will receive a per diem of $54.00USD for food and incidentals. This amount will be decreased for days with meals provided, such as the lunches and breakfasts.
| People | Nychka | Bamzai | Miller | Hegerl | Allen | Bhend | Christidis | Fischer | Gillett | Jones | Karoly | Knutti | Nozawa | Rougier | Stone | Stott | von Storch | Barnett | Kenyon | Knutson | Santer | Smith | Taylor | Tebaldi | Wehner | Zhang | Zwiers |
| local | manager | overseas | domestic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Restaurant list | yes. | yes. | yes. | yes. | yes. | yes. | no. | yes. | unk. | yes. | yes. | yes. | unk. | yes. | yes. | yes. | yes. | no. | yes. | yes. | yes. | unk. | yes. | yes. | yes. | yes. | yes. |