Center for Environmental Solutions 8th Colloquium

Sunday, May 11, 2003
	8:00pm	Pre-Conference Dinner
Monday, May 12, 2003
	Rhodes Conference Room, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University
	8:15am	Continental Breakfast
	8:30am	Welcomes
		Peter Lange, Provost, Duke University
		William Schlesinger, Dean, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University
		Bruce Jentleson, Director, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University
		Michael Munger, Director, MIRC, and Chair, Department of Political Science, Duke University
	8:45am	Opening Remarks: "Reconstructing Climate Policy: Beyond Kyoto"
		This session will outline the analysis in the new book by Richard B. Stewart & Jonathan B. Wiener, Reconstructing Climate Policy: Beyond Kyoto (American Enterprise Press, 2003). The book evaluates the Kyoto Protocol and potential next steps (such as the US joining Kyoto now, the US staying out of Kyoto indefinitely, and other alternatives such as international emissions taxes). It proposes a new climate treaty regime led by the U.S. and China, operating in parallel to Kyoto with the possibility of eventual merger, using international emissions trading both to reduce costs and to engage participation
	Chair:	Jonathan Wiener, Duke University School of Law, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Faculty Director, Center for Environmental Solutions
	Keynote Speaker: Richard Stewart, University Professor, New York University
	9:30am	Forecasting Climate Change Impacts: Globally and on Key Regional Actors
		This session will focus on the potential benefits of forestalling future climate change (avoided climate damages), both globally and for major emitting countries such as the United States and China. How do expected national climate change impacts influence the treaty negotiations over emissions limitations? Might China and the US be reluctant to reduce emissions in part because they perceive modest losses, or even gains, due to global warming? What new research is needed to improve global and regional-scale forecasts of climate change impacts?
	Chair:	James Clark, Center on Global Change and Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University
	Speaker:	Roni Avissar, Pratt School of Engineering, Duke University
	Discussant:	Gabi Hegerl, Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University
	10:45am	Break
	11:00am	Optimizing Climate Policy Over Time
		This session will address the "targets and timetables" for emissions limitations in the Kyoto Protocol, development of alternative time paths for emissions limitations, and the challenge of adaptive learning and updating of policy choices over time.
	Chair:	Lynn Maguire, Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University
	Speakers:	James Hammitt, Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard School of Public Health Mort Webster, Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina
	Discussant:	V. Kerry Smith, Department of Agricultural Economics, North Carolina State University
	12:15pm	Lunch
	1:30pm	Emissions Trading, Costs, and Participation
		This session will examine the use of greenhouse gas emissions trading (compared to alternatives such as emissions taxes) to reduce the costs of abatement and, via the allocation of allowances to otherwise reluctant participants, to engage participation by industry and by developing countries. It will also discuss the implications of accession to the Kyoto Protocol emissions trading regime by the US alone, by China alone, or the proposed development of a U.S.-China parallel regime that leads to accession by the US and China jointly to a reformed Kyoto regime.
	Chair:	Barbara Braatz, Center on Global Change, Duke University
	Speakers:	Richard Richels, Electric Power Research Institute John Reilly, Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change, MIT
	Discussant:	Richard Rosenzweig, Managing Director, Natsource
	3:00pm	Break
	3:15pm	Engaging China and other Major Emitting Developing Countries
		This session will examine the net benefits to China and other major developing countries of participation in a global climate regime, including the regional impacts of global warming on China, the co-benefits to China of reduction of other pollutants, and whether emissions trading and allocation of "headroom" allowances could engage participation by China and other developing countries. Why do China and other developing countries oppose international emissions trading when the economic models show them to be major winners from such a system? What are China's strategy and politics on this issue?
	Chair:	Robert Keohane, Department of Political Science, Nicholas School and Law School, Duke University
	Speakers:	ZhongXiang Zhang, East-West Center Daniel Dudek, Senior Economist, Environmental Defense
	Discussants:	Richard Morgenstern, Resources for the Future Jonathan Ocko, Department of History, North Carolina State University & Duke Law School
	4:45pm	Break
	5:00pm	Next Steps: The Prospects for Reconstructing Climate Policy
		This session will invite open group discussion on key questions. Which policy options seem most desirable, and which ones might actually be pursued in the policy arena? Which options deserve additional attention and research? What kinds of further research and new information would be most useful in constructing sensible and successful climate policy?
	Chair:	Michael Munger, Duke
	Open group discussion
		Jonathan Wiener, Duke Richard Stewart, NYU
	6:00pm	Reception - Burdman Lounge, Duke University School of Law
		Welcome by Katharine Bartlett, Dean, Duke University School of Law
		Drinks & Light hors d'oeuvres
	7:00pm	Dinner